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February 8, 2010

Heavy snow forecast

Meteorologists say El Niño is behind constant storms

By Amelia A. Pridemore

Winter has already become an unwelcome guest that will not leave southern West Virginia.

Now, that unwanted guest has figuratively raided the fridge and lounged on the couch for days without taking a shower.

Meteorologists say yet another winter storm is en route, and it could dump another 7 to 14 inches of snow over roughly three days’ time. They say the weather phenomenon widely known as El Niño is behind the constant barrage of storms. Residents, meanwhile, are more than sick of snow.

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a winter storm warning for Raleigh, Fayette and Nicholas counties. It is in effect from 1 p.m. today to 7 a.m. Thursday. The total snow accumulation for all three days is estimated to be 7 to 14 inches of snow, according to the bulletin. Storm totals could be higher in some areas.

The NWS in Blacksburg, Va., has issued the same for Greenbrier County, in effect through 11 a.m. Wednesday. That bulletin states 4 to 8 inches of snow and sleet are expected.

The NWS has issued winter weather advisories for Monroe, Summers and Wyoming counties.

By this morning, there should be about one inch of snow on the ground, said Tom Mazza, a meteorologist for the NWS in Charleston. That snow will gradually transition to freezing rain, then rain during the day.

Sometime this evening, though, precipitation will change back to snow, he said. The snow will not be heavy, and additional accumulations should not be more than an inch.

But the worst will strike Wednesday, according to Mazza. “Several inches” of snow are possible. That day, about 2 to 4 inches of snow should fall in Beckley. Another 2 to 3 inches should fall overnight. Temperatures will, at best, reach the lower 20s.

Snow will gradually taper off and turn into flurries Thursday.

The driving force behind the constant snowstorms is a phenomenon called El Niño, characterized by unusually warm temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, according to information from both Mazza and the NWS Web site.

Two jet streams — the Polar Jet in the north and the Subtropical Jet in the south — flow across the United States, according to the NWS Web site. Jet streams are relatively narrow bands of strong wind in the upper atmosphere that move from west to east. The Polar Jet can move farther south and bring cold air with it. Likewise, the Subtropical Jet can move north and bring in warm air and moisture.

Mazza said those warmer Pacific temperatures affect the Subtropical Jet. Constant storms form there and latch onto that jet. The jet moves the storms into southern California and, later, in a northeast direction.

Right now, the Polar Jet is more active, as well, Mazza said. The cold air from it is combining with the Subtropical Jet carrying the El Niño storms — causing the barrage of snowstorms.

El Niños usually last through a season, and this weather pattern could “quite possibly” persist through the winter, Mazza said.

Beckley Councilman Mike Atterson of Ward 4 said his two-wheel-drive truck stays stuck in his driveway and, sometimes, the roadways. He is tired of the snow.

“I’m kind of sick of it, myself,” he said. “I’ve talked to several people who are sick of it, too. But I didn’t talk to any skiers.”

Atterson said he believes the city will have enough salt to keep roads clear. He encouraged motorists to stay home until road crews finish their work, noting all of the abandoned vehicles that blocked snow plows during the massive Dec. 18-19 storm.

“Stay off the roads, so they can clear them,” he said. “Let the snow plows do their jobs, and the roads will be clear before you know it.”

Areas farther north were still digging their ways out of last weekend’s snowstorm, which hit them harder. According to the state Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management’s Twitter page, Gov. Joe Manchin toured some of the hardest-hit areas Monday. These included Wetzel and Marion counties and the Wheeling area.

Manchin released the following statement Monday:

“The storm caused significant damage across our state. Today, we viewed some of the hardest hit areas. I did not realize how much damage until I saw it with my own eyes — massive amounts of trees had collapsed, buildings were damaged and many power lines were down.

“...While many are still helping to dig people out, I applaud their outstanding, ongoing efforts, especially as the state braces for more winter weather.”

— E-mail: apridemore@register-herald.com

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