Stats show local Class AA basketball teams got shafted

By Dave Morrison

Fred Ferri never claimed to be a mathematics expert, though he does know a three-point shot is more than a two-pointer and if you make enough of both you generally win basketball games.

And he has won quite a few of those over the years.

But he knows this much about math and the percentages:

“In Region 1 they have eight teams,” Ferri said. “That means they have a 25-percent chance of making it to the state tournament. I have 12 teams, which means I have little better than a 16-percent chance of making it to the state tournament. And then you have to play the people we’ll have to play just to make it. Wyoming East is the defending champion, Westside, Summers County, PikeView, Bluefield, the three Raleighs (Independence, Liberty and Shady), James Monroe.

“Anybody else want that schedule?”

Or that postseason tournament?

But that’s what is facing the Class AA teams in this part of the state. Three teams — Wyoming East, Oak Hill and PikeView — should be among the top five teams in the state when the preseason poll is released Monday.

PikeView may not be because of name recognition but they return all five starters from a pretty good team last year. Westside and Bluefield should both be in the top 10. And Independence is right there with a big team that could match up well in the postseason.

I will have those six teams on my ballot Monday morning.

So let’s say you have six of the top 10 teams in one region but only two will make it.

Last year Wyoming East, Bluefield and Oak Hill made it to Charleston.

Is it about the best teams making it?

Independence coach Chad Perkins doesn’t think so.

“In my opinion, Magnolia, Ravenswood, those teams got taken care of,” Perkins said. “We have a 16-percent chance of making it. They have 25-percent. I’m a math teacher. That’s what I’m looking at.”

And Perkins brought up an interesting point.

“Let’s say it’s us and Wyoming East in the finals (of the section tournament),” Perkins said. “Say we pull off a miracle and we beat East. OK, we go into the regional and we lose and Wyoming East wins. That means the team we beat in the section goes and we don’t. I think this eliminates a Cinderella team. Anybody can have one night. But you can’t pull off four in a row. It’s too much to overcome.”

After battling through the best of the best, the state tournament would seemingly be a letdown.

“Why even go to the state tournament?” Perkins said. “After going through that, it would be a letdown.”

“I’ll give you a scenario,” Wyoming East coach Jesse Lester said. “We could face a situation where we play Westside in the (section) semis, Oak Hill and then PikeView or Bluefield in the regional championship. If you beat those three teams, you should be the state champion.”

“There is the potential for the section and region tournament to be tougher than the state tournament,” Summers County coach James “Pistol” Payne said.

And he is right.

All of which is to say, if the South is going to rise again and rule the state tournament, it’s going to have to get there the hard way. Nothing earned ever comes easy.

— E-mail:

demorrison@register-herald.com